Up to 72 million from Texas to Michigan are under severe storm risk as heavy rains, flash flooding and strong tornadoes are forecast to hit the lower Ohio Valley and the mid-South.
A powerful spring storm is forecast to unleash a tornado outbreak in the central part of the country Wednesday, with multiple, long-track EF3 tornadoes possible, along with a potentially historic flash flood event.
As many as 72 million people from northern Texas to central Michigan are under severe storm risk in the system that will see heavy rains, flash flooding and strong tornadoes hit the lower Ohio Valley and the mid-South region of the United States, the National Weather Service said.
The flash flooding is “only the beginning of a multi-day catastrophic and potentially historic event,” it warned in its morning advisory.
Severe storms will be possible for the next five days in a row — with the greatest risk Wednesday.
On Wednesday, the storms pose a risk of multiple long track EF-3 tornadoes, wind gusts up to 75 mph or higher, damaging hail 2 inches or larger in diameter with a high risk area from Paducah, Kentucky, down to Memphis, Tennessee.
Cities that will be impacted in the storms include Dallas, Little Rock, Arkansas; Memphis and Nashville, Tennessee; Paducah and Louisville, Kentucky; St. Louis, Missouri; Indianapolis, Chicago and Cincinnati. Cities at the greatest risk for strong tornadoes include Memphis and Clarksville, Tennessee; Paducah and Louisville, Kentucky; Little Rock and Jonesboro, Arkansas; Evansville and Bloomington, Indiana; and Southhaven, Mississippi.
On Wednesday morning, tornado watches are in effect in parts of Missouri, Oklahoma and Arkansas, set to expire between 10 to 12 p.m. CT. (11 to 1 p.m. ET). These storms will reinvigorate with daytime heat and head east into the night.
The storms have already started to roar.
The weather service office of Kansas City/Pleasant Hill Missouri said at 7:12 a.m. CT that a confirmed tornado was located 8 miles northwest of Montrose, Missouri, moving at 50 mph.
The city of Owasso, Oklahoma, reported an 11-mile path of destruction from an unconfirmed tornado this morning that uprooted trees and ripped the roofs off of houses.
“Radar and debris is indicating an unconfirmed tornado. There are currently no reported injuries,” the city wrote on Facebook.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear declared a state of emergency ahead of the storms, noting that the system is especially concerning for far western Kentucky. He said: “Tornadoes are expected, and I know that’s tough to hear. And we are most concerned about the area of Western Kentucky that has gotten hit far too much, as well as a wider area of Western Kentucky.”
The Storm Prediction Center set a high risk level (5/5) of severe weather across portions of the mid-South on Wednesday, as well as a moderate risk of excessive rainfall from the lower Ohio Valley to the Mmd-South, where several inches of rainfall and flash flooding are forecast into the evening and overnight.
The tornado outbreak and severe thunderstorms are expected to rumble over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the mid-South and the lower Ohio Valley later Wednesday into the evening impacting western and middle Tennessee, Arkansas, western and central Kentucky, eastern Missouri, Illinois, northern Mississippi, Indiana, northern Louisiana, western Ohio, northeast Texas and southern Lower Michigan.
This storm system will become stationary across the region Thursday, leading to more than 6 inches of rain possible from Wednesday to Thursday.
The severe threat continues for 42 million people Thursday, 22 million Friday, 27 million people Saturday and 12 million Sunday.
All hazards from damaging winds to hail and tornadoes will be possible each day for many of the same areas from Texas to Ohio, as well as into the mid-Atlantic on Thursday.
There, the storm system will also bring a high risk for flash flooding Thursday through the weekend.
The front will remain stalled into the weekend and the event is forecast “to bring potentially historic amounts of rainfall, with some locations possibly seeing as much as 10 to 15 inches or rain through the weekend,” the weather service said.
This will be a long-duration, multiday event where rounds of heavy rain with intense rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches an hour will back-build over many of the same areas over the course of four days. Once the heavy rain begins Wednesday night, it will continue on and off until Sunday.
As many as 33 million people are under flood watches stretching from Texarkana to Detroit on Wednesday. One of the flood watches is a “particularly dangerous situation (PDS)” category.
The weather service warned: “The forecast heavy rainfall in this event has a return interval of anywhere from 25 to 100 years. In other words a heavy rainfall event of this magnitude falling within 4 days is an event that happens once in a generation to once in a lifetime. Historic rainfall totals and impacts are possible.”
Communities are urged to prepare for the storm and “severe disruptions to daily life given the expected extreme rainfall and flood risk.”
